Cole Palmer was named the eighth-best player in the world at the 2024 Ballon d’Or ceremony — a remarkable rise for the Chelsea forward.
But while he remains “untouchable” inside Chelsea F.C., both the eye test and the underlying data suggest a noticeable dip in form.
Even Palmer himself has admitted he is not yet back to his brilliant best.
Burnout Concerns After Three Relentless Summers
One of the biggest factors behind the downturn may be workload.
Professional Footballers’ Association chief executive Maheta Molango highlighted the issue at the Financial Times Business of Football Summit, pointing to Palmer’s lack of a proper summer break.
Between club and country, Palmer has racked up:
-
112 matches in three years
-
A European Championship with England national football team
-
An Under-21 European Championship
-
A Club World Cup campaign
That sustained intensity appears to have taken a toll.
The Groin Issue That Won’t Go Away
Towards the end of last season, Palmer began struggling with a recurring groin problem. He missed over six weeks before returning in December — but he has not been fully pain-free since.
Chelsea’s medical team continue to monitor him closely, and the club have denied that surgery is required.
Head coach Liam Rosenior recently substituted Palmer during a 2-1 defeat to Arsenal F.C., explaining it was a tactical decision with one eye on yellow cards and freshness ahead of facing Aston Villa F.C..
Even so, removing Chelsea’s main creative spark while chasing a game raised eyebrows.
What The Data Says
Since returning from injury in December:
-
7 goals
-
3 assists
-
16 appearances
-
4 of those goals from penalties
Penalties have long boosted Palmer’s numbers. Of players with 40+ Premier League goals, only Mark Noble and Mikel Arteta have a higher proportion of spot-kicks among their totals.
Since his Chelsea debut in September 2023, no player has scored more Premier League penalties than Palmer (18).
However, comparing two periods shows a clear contrast:
Up to January 2025:
-
36 league goals (33% penalties)
-
17 assists in 54 games
Since January 2025:
-
9 league goals (66% penalties)
-
3 assists in 33 games
He is taking fewer shots, creating fewer chances and registering lower expected-goals (xG) and expected-assists (xA) figures.
Surprisingly Strong Without Him
One of the more curious trends is Chelsea’s record without Palmer.
This season:
-
73% win rate without him
-
24% win rate with him
-
2.27 points per game without him vs 1.18 with him
-
2.2 goals per game without him vs 1.5 with him
Those figures appear counterintuitive given Palmer’s match-winning displays in the Conference League final win over Real Betis and the Club World Cup triumph against Paris Saint-Germain F.C..
They underline how football can be shaped by context, opposition and tactical balance — not just individual brilliance.
Could Chelsea Manage Him Better?
Chelsea rested Palmer during pre-season ahead of the 2024-25 campaign, allowing him to start 36 Premier League matches.
However, the Club World Cup added heavy mileage — 556 of 570 possible minutes in challenging conditions — stretching his season to 336 days.
Chelsea’s break between seasons lasted just 35 days, the shortest in the club’s history.
Palmer has since admitted:
“I am still not there physically but I hope with the medical staff here that I will come back and show my level again.”
Encouragingly, Chelsea’s medical department — led by Bryce Cavanagh — has successfully reintegrated players like Reece James and Wesley Fofana, though Roméo Lavia remains a longer-term project.
The Bigger Picture
Palmer is still only 23. Burnout, minor injury complications and tactical adjustments can all contribute to temporary dips — especially after a breakout year of such intensity.
Inside Chelsea, there is no panic. He remains their most gifted attacking talent and the player capable of turning tight games with a single moment of calm brilliance.
The challenge now is simple: manage the minutes, protect the body, and allow “Cold Palmer” to rediscover his rhythm.